Argentina standard offers a cautionary tale for Greece

"Thieves! '' some shouted, pounding hammers.

It was a low moment for Argentina as abandoned an experiment to peg the peso with the dollar, froze the bank accounts and defaulted on $ 100 billion in debt, mostly outside.

Today, the sheet metal is missing. But the debilitating effects of Argentina's 2001 default and devaluation of the currency still linger. And now, as Greece balance toward a possible default, the Argentine could be instructive lessons.

On the one hand, a decade later, Argentina has not yet been able to re-enter the global credit market.

"A pattern is not free," said Jaime Abut, a business consultant in Rosario, a city north of Buenos Aires. "You have to pay the consequences, and for a long time. Argentina is no longer considered a serious country. "

If anything, economists say, the prospects of Greece could be worse. Argentina was and is a major exporter of agricultural products, and runs a trade surplus. Most of the Greek economy is services, especially tourism, and Greece perennially runs a trade deficit.

In addition, at the time of its standard Argentina had a fiscal deficit of 3.2 percent of gross domestic product. Greece's deficit was 10.5 percent of GDP last year, according to the European Commission — well above the EU limit of 3 percent.

And as a percentage of GDP, Greece's debt of 150 percent is far worse than the Argentina had — 54 percent — when he adopted the standard.

But perhaps the biggest bind for Greece is that it shares a common currency with the other European Nations that use the euro. And so, unless he took the imponderable and unprecedented fall in eurozone, Greece does not have access to a great tool — devalue its currency sovereign — that have helped Argentina its economic storm.

"The big problem for Greece is that they have a strong currency, much stronger relative to their productivity," said Eric Ritondale, a senior economist of Econviews, an economic consulting firm here.

During the Decade of 1990, trying to tame hyperinflation, Argentina had connected the value of your weight to the u.s. dollar — a strategy of "convertibility" that proved untenable because of rising global interest rates. The country's privatized many industries, leading to high unemployment, but also made Argentina's economy more efficient. (Greece, whose public sector accounted for about 40% of its economy before the debt crisis began last year, is now under heavy pressure to privatise.)

Until 1999, however, it was clear to most economists that Argentina was marching inexorably toward a default and devaluation. The number of people below the poverty line was growing — got in more than 50 percent of the population in 2002 — and unemployment was rising. The coalition Government of President Fernando de la Rúa began to unravel.

As with Greece now, social tensions grew. There were eight general strikes in Argentina, in 2001, marked by thousands of locks and looting. Huge lines formed outside many European embassies as waves of Argentines have fled their country.

"People have sold everything moved to Spain and took jobs doing nothing, because they felt the country had no hope," recalled Daniel Kerner, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a firm of political risk consultancy.

TheMr. de la Rúa resigned in December 21, 2001, fleeing from Government House by helicopter as a riot lasted below. Over the next 10 days, four Presidents assumed power and then quickly resigned before a fifth, Eduardo Duhalde declared the devaluation of the currency. Shortly thereafter, Congress formally approved the debt default that was already a reality.

In 2003, Nestor Kirchner was elected to replace the interim President, Mr. Duhalde. Mr. Kircher embarked on a new economic model — one that his wife, current President of Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, continues to follow today. Its pillars are sustaining a weak currency to encourage exports and discourage imports and maintaining fiscal and trade surpluses that can be leveraged for government funding and pay the debts.

Assist this strategy has been the global increase in prices of agricultural commodities. For Argentina, a major producer of soybeans, the raw wave has been a godsend. Soybean prices rose from $ 200 per tonne in 2003 to about $ 500 per ton today.

Greece, with some agricultural exports, cannot expect a similar harvest. But economists say that can benefit from the example of Argentina to restructure debt — principally by seeking to prevent its repetition.

Charles Newbery reported in Buenos Aires and Alexei Barrionuevo of São Paulo, Brazil and New York.

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Saab workers miss a paycheck

Saab PARIS — was faced with a possible collapse on Thursday, after Dutch owner of automaker said that he was unable to pay employees their wages, and warned that prospects for obtaining short-term funding were uncertain.

Swedish car, headquartered in Zeewolde, Netherlands and formerly known as the Spyker Cars, said he and Saab Automobile "were in discussions with several parties" on financing, including through a planned sale and lease-back of real estate assets of Saab.

"These discussions are ongoing," the company said. "Cannot however be no guarantee that these discussions will be successful or that the necessary funds will be obtained."

Swedish automobile shares slid by more than 31 percent in afternoon Amsterdam trading.

Any hope that the Swedish Government would intervene to help disappeared after Maud Olofsson, Minister for enterprise, told a press conference in Stockholm that "the Board of Saab has the responsibility" to pay the workers — not the Government.

Asked about the possibility that Saab would end in bankruptcy, Mrs. Olofsson replied: "I think it's too early to talk about it".

Veli-Pekka Saikkala, the Secretary of the Union IF Metall "this is terrible," said in a statement. "You should never give hope, but only now seems extremely dark".

The more than 3,700 employees Saab last were paid one month ago, Gunilla Gustavs, said a spokesman. Workers were paid Thursday, while white collar workers were to be paid Monday.

Unions of Saab said it would formally require their salaries on Monday, if they had not been paid by then, after the company would have seven days to respond.

"After that there are two alternatives," Mr. Saikkala told Reuters. "Whether we see that the situation can be resolved, or we demand that Saab is placed in bankruptcy".

Under its Chief Executive, Victor r. Muller, Swedish car, a small manufacturer of sports cars, bought Saab from General Motors in 2010. But he has struggled with the difficult task of trying to restore the timely production of the company and return it to profitability.

Factory output of Trollhättan, Sweden's Saab was suspended for most of the time since the start of April because of lack of money. The company, repeating a statement two weeks ago, said he was continuing to negotiate with the parts suppliers that refused to extend I.O.U.s.

The announcement Thursday dashed hopes that recently announced deals with Chinese partners would turn Saab. Zhejiang Youngman automobile Lotus agreed to pay EUR 136 million, or US $ 195 million, to a game of 29.9% in Swedish car firms Said 13 June. This deal came shortly after the announcement in may Pang of Automobile trade would pay $ 109 million for 24 percent of the Swedish car.

Companies have portrayed the promotions as games changers offering access to the Chinese auto market, the world's largest. But analysts have expressed skepticism that the injections of money — assuming they are approved by the Chinese authorities — are of a sufficient scale to correct Saab.

The brand Saab can still be saved, Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist, BGC Partners in London, wrote in a research note. But, he wrote, "sincerely doubt that even if an agreement with the Chinese or the Russians could be negotiated, that in such a crowded local market volume as this and another that right across Europe probably contains something like excess production capacity of 40 percent, that there may be any future producing cars Saab in Sweden."

Saab still awaiting word on whether a Russian banker, Vladimir a. Antonov, will be erased by the Swedish Government and the European Investment Bank to invest in the group. Your participation, if approved, would bring substantial new funds.

Ms. Olofsson said that until now General Motors, which still owns Saab preferred stock that is eager to sell, and the European Investment Bank, which has extended funding to the automaker, blocked the entry of Mr. Antonov for the company.

"If G.M. and the E.I.B. say ' Yes ', the Swedish Government we are also prepared to say it too," he added.

William Rankin contributed reporting.

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Dutch Court acquits political Islam

Mr. Wilders, 47, faced a possible sentence of one year in prison for five charges of inciting hatred and discrimination against Muslims. He became a major force in Dutch politics, make provocative statements including comparing the Qur'an with mein kampf and call to end immigrationthe Muslims.

Mr. Wilders also made a short film "fitna," in 2008 which portrayed Islam as inherently violent and joined Newt Gingrich in New York last August to oppose the construction of an Islamic community center and Mosque near the World Trade Center site.

But the presiding judge of the District Court of Amsterdam, Marcel van Oosten, found that during the offensive, the actions of Mr. Wilders protected speech. In dismissing the charges, the judge described some of his comments as "rude and degrading" and others as "over the edge of what is allowed," said Netherlands radio.

Supporters of Mr. Wilders applauded as the judge concluded his intervention.

The verdict was expected as prosecutors had called for his acquittal, arguing that the instructions were directed "against a religion as such and not against any person or group of persons".

Under the case law of the Dutch Supreme Court and the European Court of human rights, it was not possible to convict him, g. j. Alexander Knoops, a Dutch lawyer and professor of international criminal law at the University of Utrecht, said in an e-mail. But Muslim organisations who brought the case won an appeal court ruling that he should go ahead over the objections of the indictment.

"The trial is in line with the jurisprudence of the European Court of human rights," Mr. Knoops wrote, "that, in 2010," held only when certain statements inciting violence, is there a role for the criminal law.

"The same approach is taken by the Supreme Court of the United States," added, for example in cases involving the Ku Klux Klan.

The Court gave the plaintiffs 14 days to appeal, but Mr. Knoops said that the complainants had little ground to appeal the case: "In our system, just the prosecution can appeal a trial", and that is "highly unlikely".

Ties Prakken, an attorney who represented the immigrants and anti-racist plaintiffs, agreed that "there is no appeal possible in the Netherlands" and said that she instead would bring the case to the UN Commission on human rights in Geneva, accusing the Dutch Government for not protecting people from incitement to discrimination or violence.

"We have a reasonable case," she said, adding, "there is some case law in our favour there."

"It is not just an acquittal for me," The Associated Press quoted Mr. Wilders as telling his supporters, "but a victory for freedom of expression in the Netherlands. Fortunately, you are authorized to discuss Islam in public debate and you're not muzzled in public debate. A huge load has fallen off of my shoulders. "

The original trial judges were forced to resign in October after lawyers of Mr. Wilders argued that lawyers were biased against him.

Ms. Prakken said she was concerned that Mr. Wilders would be encouraged by their victory in Court and take a public stand more chauvinist.

"He has poisoned the environment," she said. "It is normal now say in the Netherlands that the experiment failed immigration. The climate worsened, and he is one of the instigators and the symptoms. It is not as it was 20 years ".

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South Africa embraces Mrs. Obama with fervour

"We will welcome you as a child of African heritage, and we can call the Queen of our world," said Ms. Machel, an advocate for women and children, noting that Regina Mundi means Queen in the world in Latin.

The thorny ambivalence that South Africans often show to the United States, which often is understood here as an arrogant superpower, seem to have been suspended for Mrs. Obama. South Africans have embraced it with stirring emotion since it arrived on Monday, and she has been embracing them again one by one, stop after stop.

Both the choreography of her appearances and nationally broadcast speech she gave here on Wednesday, had evoked the commonalities between the struggles of freedom of blacks in South Africa and the United States — an approach that has resonated with South Africans.

In Regina Mundi Church, which was a sanctuary and a hub Organizer for those who struggle against apartheid, as well as black churches in the United States during the civil rights movement, Mrs. Obama told the story of young people of both countries "that marched until his feet were raw, who suffered beatings and bullets and decades behind bars, who risked and sacrificed everything they had for the freedom they deserve".

"It is because of them," she said, "that" I stand here before you as first lady of the United States of America.

Donald Gips, the American Ambassador, who has cultivated friendships with a wide range of South Africans said to believe that the visit of Ms. Obama would contribute to a warming of relations between the main democracy United States and Africa.

"When I talk to people in Government, business and civil society, there is an incredible love for President Obama and first lady," he said. "This trip has solidified that."

The distrust between South Africa and the United States dates back to the cold war, when the African National Congress, South Africa's Liberation Movement, found refuge and support in the Soviet Union, while President Ronald Reagan condemned "to armed Soviet guerrillas of the African National Congress," who said, "have started new acts of terrorism."

But even after the end of apartheid, were years of tension over South Africa's approach to AIDS under former President Thabo Mbeki, who resisted the wide distribution of drugs of lifeguards and questioned the disability as the cause of the disease. American administrations also criticised what they saw as Mr. Mbeki coddling of Robert Mugabe, the autocrat in neighbouring Zimbabwe.

But the current President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, has changed the direction of the country about AIDS, pressing a major expansion of treatment for those with the disease. He is also taking a harder line with Mr. Mugabe, 87, pushing for the strengthening of the institutions that enable fair elections.

Be the first African-American in the White House has not hurt relations between the United States and South Africa, too.

In his visit, Mrs. Obama honored in Word and deed more heroic vision of South Africa itself — as the country that made a peaceful transition from white minority rule to black majority rule for 17 years.

On Tuesday morning, Gips SR. and his wife, Elizabeth, received 100 guests — "the crème de la crème of South Africa," as a guest described them — to meet Mrs. Obama in the Ambassador's residence in Pretoria.

Mrs. Obama spoke to each guest individually, the gifts, he said. Several guests have said that they were touched that Mrs. Obama cited Albertina Sisulu, a beloved mother of civilian movement who died this month to 92 years of age. And they laughed when she told them her husband was "pouty" that he had been unable to come to South Africa with it.

"People are fascinated by the fact that we have a black woman first lady," said Jay Naidoo, a member of Cabinet in the first Government of Mr. Nelson Mandela, who became a businessman and is now a philanthropist. "There is a fascination that a black couple is in the White House. It's unbelievable. "

Later Tuesday, Mrs. Obama visited the apartheid Museum and the Nelson Mandela Foundation, where Ms. Machel showed Mrs. Obama, his daughters, Malia and Sasha and her mother, Marian Robinson, Mr. Mandela letters and memorabilia.

Only later, Mr. Nelson Mandela, 92 and in frail health, granted Mrs. Obama and his sons a rare audience. Sello Hatang, a spokesman for the Nelson Mandela Foundation, described the visit as a courtesy call that included an exchange of pleasantries.

Most of the major roles of featured pictures of the front page on Wednesday of a smiling Mrs. Obama, chic in a red j.crew suit and bare legs, sloping shoulder to shoulder with a smiling Mandela Mr..

"He looked strong, he looked good, he looked ... happy," she told reporters who traveled with her to the United States.

In his speech in Regina Mundi Church, Mrs. Obama called on the youth of Africa to take on contemporary injustices that "are no less blatant" than past evils — hunger, disease, domestic violence.

And she celebrated young women who have sacrificed so that they believed: Robyn Kriel, a journalist from Zimbabwe, who was beaten and harassed by writing about corruption and human rights violations; and Grace Nanyonga, a Ugandan orphan who began cooking fish and sell them at age 13 to support her six brothers.

"Hey Grace," Mrs. Obama called. "You go, girl!"

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State Department's error of dashes hopes of thousands who seek to live in u.s.

When Anna Guniya saw on the Web site of the Department of State that she had won a lottery for a visa to live in the United States, she promptly refused a job where she lives in Moscow and made plans to see his parents one last time to say goodbye.

"The moment I opened the lottery notification I said, ' Oh my God! ' "Mrs. Guniya said Wednesday by telephone from the Russian capital, speaking in English almost fluently."Still can't explain to you the entire spectrum of emotions. Since my own childhood was my dream to live in the country of freedom, where everyone, all nationalities, can live. "

But Ms. Guniya bags never hers. After the State Department posted warnings in the first days of may, advising more than 22,000 foreigners around the world that they had won the chance to become permanent residents of the United States, the Department has posted another warning on 13 may, canceling the results of the lottery and annul the winners, citing a "computer programming problem".

Now Ms. Guniya, 23, a Russian citizen, sits on your computer in Moscow at all hours running a Facebook page called 22 thousand tears, where thousands of people are communion on their hopes, suddenly raised and dashed so suddenly. Aspiring immigrants are sharing their disappointment but also seek reparation. On Monday, they Filed a class action lawsuit in federal court in Washington, seeking to force the State Department to return to the first results of the lottery and restore your chance of visas.

State Department officials expected the concise message posted on the computer failure would bring a peaceful end to the patched Lottery selection. "The results were not valid," the message says, "because they did not represent a fair and random selection of operators, as required by law." A new lottery drawing was announced for July 15.

But in the era of social media, foreigners who were frowned found another on the Internet at together. Countries like Ukraine, Nigeria and Egypt, they have placing Skype calls to legislators in Congress and the American media flooding news websites with pleas for help. Under a separate link, more than 18,000 of them have joined a record with your contact information.

They even overloaded the comments in the State Department page on Facebook. "We welcome the opinion of people, but you're taking all basically about the site," an administrator posted there plaintively. "We have other issues that we are trying to promote, as the safety and well-being of American citizens."

Following a complaint letter from his lawyer, Kenneth white of Los Angeles, Inspector-General of the Department of State said he would analyze the flaw in the lottery.

The State Department runs an annual Diversity Visa Lottery to offer permanent resident visas, known as green cards, to foreigners from countries which have sent some immigrants to the United States. Because the American immigration system is based on family ties, people from countries with more immigrants already here, as Mexico and the Philippines, have a better chance to win green cards, for which there is an annual limit.

The lottery chooses randomly a range of 100,000 candidates to proceed to the next step in the process, with 55,000 visas granted each year. State Department officials said that about 19 million people around the world submitted applications electronics during the period of 30 days in the fall.

With the new software used this year, David Donahue, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for visa services, said officials found that 90 per cent of foreigners had been chosen by lot who had applied in the first two days of the registration period.

"The entire pool of candidates would have been unfairly disadvantaged," said Rosemary Macray, a spokesman for the Bureau of Consular Affairs of the Department. "The error was found and corrected, and let's move forward with a new drawing that will be in full compliance with the law".

Ms. Guniya said that the reversal was crushing because she had hoped to find a place that she could feel at home in the United States. She said that she was born in Abkhazia, Republic of Georgia, but fled to Russia with her parents when she was a young and war broke out. She said she never felt comfortable in Russia.

"Living in the United States would mean no more displacement, no more problems because of who I was," she said.

Armande Gil, 42, who is from France, said that the loss of your opportunity for a green card means that she might have to abandon a career as a psychologist that she built more than 13 years living in the United States. Your temporary work visa is about to expire.

"It seems that I'm not a foreigner, how belong here," said Ms. Gil, who lives in Miami and has worked in hospitals there. If she has to return to France, she said, she will have to start again and get his license to practice. "I would feel completely helpless," she said.

Some people who commented on the Facebook site of the Department of State had not been chosen in the first draw. "WOW great news. So, I still have the chance to be selected. I wish that my ll luck be good at the moment, "said Nazmul Hasan.

Ms. Macray said that the winners of first round lottery should have been more cautious. "We are very sorry for the disappointment, but we have always said that you should wait until you have your visa in hand before making changes to radical lifestyle," she said.

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Serena Williams WINS in three

Felipe Trueba/European Pressphoto AgencySerena Williams struggled against the hard-hitting 19-year-old Simona Halep after losing the first set.

WIMBLEDON, England — Serena Williams rose again in a match she seemed ready to lose and defeated Simona Halep of Romania, 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 on Thursday in the second round at Wimbledon. The victory put him one step closer to successfully defend the women's singles title, which won four times.

The latest news and analysis of all tournaments in 2011.

Energized, perhaps, stunning sunset and a hard-hitting opponent, Williams, seventh seeded shook off his loss in the opening set and dominated during the remaining hours it took to complete his victory in the Court 2 at all England Club.

The first set, Halep, 19, who is ranked 58th in the world, handcuffed his opponent more known with sharply angled serves and took a 4-1 lead. Williams, 29, seemed incapable of generating winning photos — but not for long.

She started the ball beating and your opponent with swinging winners down the line and in the curves, at one time wrong-foot Halep so dramatically that she did by Division and dropped to the grass. But Halep was shocked nor awed by the dam. She held her ground and moved to serve as a 5-2 with a powerful t that Williams couldn't handle what seemed the fifth or sixth time.

On the passage, Halep used both hands to massage his left calf muscle, suggesting that she may have harmed herself in autumn. A medical timeout was called. When it was over, Williams walked to the service line and retook the daredevil, winning his serve and trailing, 5-3.

Halep now began to falter, hitting an easy forehand wide to his only error free (Williams slammed nine). But then she it and held serve as Williams became jitter. First set of Halep.

As the second set opened, Halep showed signs of nerves, hitting three in errors and facing a couple of breakpoints. In the second, his forehand sailed wide and Williams was up a break.

Williams wasted a second chance to break the sack of Halep, beating two backhands into the net on breakpoints and producing the game by 3-1, instead of falling, 4-0. Then, Williams has another break as Halep began spraying the Court with errors long and wide.

Williams won the final point of the second set after a furious rally that took both players from one side to the other and ended with a net cord, dropped over networks famous unreachably, forgiving of Wimbledon to the side of Halep.

Determination of Halep chipped and she found herself down, 5-0 in the final set. Williams served out the game, collecting valuable Court time which could help his championship form recover after a long layoff.

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Obama will accelerate Pullout from war in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON-President Obama said Wednesday that the United States largely had achieved its objectives in Afghanistan, setting in motion a substantial withdrawal of American troops in a confirmation of the threat of displacement in the region and the economic and political landscape in a rapidly changing America tired of war.

The reductions in troop came after a short but fierce internal debate. TimesCast | The view Kabul and American soldiers in the Afghan province of Khost on Wednesday. President Obama established an accelerated withdrawal timetable.

Assert that the country that served as base for the September 11, 2001 attacks no longer represented a terrorist threat to the United States, Mr. Obama declared that the "tide of the war is receding." And in a blunt acknowledgment of national economic strains, he said, "America, it is time to focus on building the nation here at home."

Mr. Obama announced plans to withdraw the 10,000 troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year. The remaining 20,000 troops from the 2009 "wave" of forces would leave next summer, amounting to about one third of the 100,000 troops in the country now. He said the withdrawal would continue "steadily" until the United States handed over security to Afghan authorities in 2014.

The troop reductions, which were decided on after a short but fierce internal debate, will be deeper and faster than the recommendations made by military commanders of Mr. Obama, and they will come as President faces relentless budget pressures, an American public increasingly uneasy and a re-election campaign next year.

Just hours later spoke of Mr. Obama, President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday that he also would begin to draw down the 4,000 strong French contingent in Afghanistan.

"Taking into account the progress that we have seen, that France will begin a gradual withdrawal of troops sent to Afghanistan, strengthening proportionally and in a timeframe comparable to the withdrawal of American reinforcements," Mr. Sarkozy said in a statement issued by his Office, Reuters reported.

Mr. Obama, speaking in tones methodical during a speech of 15 minutes from the East Room of the White House, spoke of ending the longest war of America and of the painful lessons that he thought could be withdrawn. At the same time that justifies the commitment of the nation's decade, he spoke of "ending the war with responsibility" and warned of the dangers of overextending the military by sending large numbers of soldiers in combat. He acknowledged that the enormous challenges remained before ending the conflict which cost hundreds of billions of dollars and 1,500 American lives.

Withdrawals would begin winding down of military counterinsurgency strategy, which Mr. Obama approved for 18 months. Administration officials have indicated that they planned to put more emphasis on clandestine counterterrorism operations focused of the type that killed Osama bin Laden, who the President cited as Annex A, in the case of a substantial reduction of American troops.

"We are starting this survey from a position of strength", said Mr. Obama. "Al Qaeda is at a pressure greater than at any time since 9/11". He said an intense campaign of drone strikes and other covert operations in Pakistan had crippled the original network of Al Qaeda in the region, leaving its leaders killed or pinned down in the rugged border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Of the 30 leading Qaeda identified by American intelligence, 20 were killed in the past year and a half, administration officials said.

But the withdrawal of the entire wave force until the end of next summer will change significantly the way the United States wages war in Afghanistan, said analysts, suggesting that the Administration may have concluded can no longer achieve its ambitions over there.

Mr. Obama recognized both in their comments. "Don't try to make Afghanistan a perfect place," he said. "We will not police its streets or patrol its mountains indefinitely. It is the responsibility of the Afghan Government. "

Thom Shanker and Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting from Washington and Alissa j. Rubin from Kabul, Afghanistan.

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News Analysis: drawing down, with a vigilant eye on Pakistan

Just shy of 10 years later, the announcement of President Obama on Wednesday night, that he is starting the withdrawal of long-anticipated Afghanistan marks one more step in the gradual reversal of that calculation. Although the President could not say so directly, one of the restrictions on America's retreat from a decade of hard and bloody is the recognition that, more than ever, the United States will be counting on help from Afghanistan to deal with emerging threats from Pakistan.

The Government argues that the killing of osama bin Laden last month in its deep composed within Pakistan, combined with scores of other counterterrorism strikes, given greater leeway to reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan. Still angry reaction from Pakistan to that raid also makes it more urgent than ever that the United States maintain websites outside the country to launch drone attacks and commando against militant networks that remain in Pakistan and to make sure that the fast-growing nuclear arsenal of Pakistan never falls into the wrong hands.

What raid of Abbottabad, Pakistan, Bin Laden "demonstrated more alive than ever before is that we need a base for attacking targets in Pakistan, and the geography is simple: you need to do this than Afghanistan," said Bruce Reidel, a CIA ex-official, who conducted the first review of Mr. Obama of strategy in the region.

As such, there are two reasons American planners expect to negotiate with the Government of President hamid karzai , an agreement to keep upwards of 25,000 American forces in Afghanistan, even after the troops of 30,000 "surge" are withdrawn within the next 14 months and tens of thousands of more until the end of 2014.

The first is to ensure that Afghanistan never again becomes a base for attacks against the United States. But the reason most urgent is Pakistan. In his speech, Mr. Obama has invited Pakistan to expand its peaceful cooperation in the region, but he also noted that Pakistan should fulfil its commitments and that "the United States never tolerate a refuge for those who would destroy us."

Pakistan has already made clear, however, that he will never allow American forces to be based there. As they returned more hostile relations with the United States in recent months, he refused to issue visas to a large number of CIA agents and seems to be moving quickly close American tinnitus Shamsi base, Pakistan.

In turn, administration officials make it clearer than ever that view from Pakistan sheltering terrorist groups as the most pressing problem. "We don't see a transnational threat that comes out of Afghanistan," a senior administration official said Wednesday in briefing reporters before the speech of the President. Later, he added, "the threat came from Pakistan."

These realities put increasing pressure on Obama administration officials to secure some long-term success of the war in Afghanistan. This is not guaranteed. How to leave the bulk of international forces, the country still can descend into civil war and chaos.

Indeed, several senior administration officials have acknowledged in recent days that the announcement made by Mr. Obama simply put the best face possible on a three-year plan to withdraw from what was once an expansive experiment in nation building.

The fundamental goal now will be a minute — work of combating terrorism to stop Al Qaeda — that is far more closely to the mission that the Vice President Joseph r. Biden Jr. and some White House political advisers argued during 18 months ago. With the announcement Wednesday, President Obama has indicated that he has advanced slowly toward that point of view too.

"The most difficult over the coming years will be proving Afghans that there is something in this for them," said Mr. Reidel.

This is particularly difficult because the Afghans and can draw the prime-time speech of Mr. Obama is that Americans are leaving again — just as they did after the Soviet Union gave up its war in 1989 —, but this time more slowly.

In the last decade, Afghans have heard many promises of Washington. Months after ordering the invasion that ousted the Taliban Government, President George w. Bush declared that the United States can start a new Marshall plan for Afghanistan; He never fully materialized.

In 2009 Mr. Obama spoke of a "civilian surge" of "agricultural experts and educators, engineers and lawyers" who would train Afghans how to create a modern country. The results have been limited, and Mr. Obama never mentioned these goals in a speech Wednesday night.

Administration officials insist that efforts will continue despite the withdrawal. Even after all the "outbreak" forces to return home, there will still be 68,000 American troops on the ground next year — more than twice the number who were in Afghanistan the day Mr. Obama took office.

But over time, the counterterrorism mission will require fewer troops in the region, administration officials said.

"When we think about Al Qaeda and talk about them in Afghanistan, we say that it is 50 or 75 people who are really there as combatants, and mainly are embedded within units Haqqani," a senior administration official said in an interview last week, referring to a militant network based in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The official made clear that the main focus of the Administration was now a much larger and more dangerous, the remaining rebels in Pakistan.

The essence of the decision of Mr. Obama is to accelerate what is working — no matter how loudly the Pakistanis protest drone strikes and violation of its sovereignty.

Over the past few weeks, officials have used this same logic to justify a more pronounced reduction of forces in Afghanistan.

"What they are doing, of course, is changing the metrics of success," said David Rothkopf, who wrote a story the leader of National Security Council, which led the effort Mr. Obama to restrict the targets in Afghanistan — and focus again on counterterrorism strikes inside Pakistan.

"It was just a few years ago that we discussed how long it would take to train Afghan forces to take the lead in protecting the parties contested the most violent country," he added. "Or how long it would take to build schools and courts, and provision of basic services. Nobody wants to talk about this more — the timelines are longer and larger costs that the policy here at home will have. "

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General says Yemen opposition will be ally against terrorism

But Major General Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, a long powerful military commanders Yemen's and now a prominent opposition figure, says the family has just about scenery behind.

Once it comes to energy, he says, the opposition will become a much more reliable counterterrorism ally to the United States of President Saleh ever was. Mr. Saleh, now grounded in a hospital in the Saudi Arabian Club, is the problem, the general says, is not the answer.

"While this regime is in power, Al Qaeda will continue to exist in Yemen," said General Ahmar, sitting in his Office at the headquarters of the first Armored Division of the army, which he leads. "Now, cooperation to combat terrorism is based on cooperation material only. It is for the exchange of funds. How much will you give me if I can kill a person for you? "

As soon as political power is no longer family consolidated General Saleh, Ahmar vowed: "we will deal with terrorism as a critical issue. He will fight the terrorists as a matter of life or death. Not for material gain ".

Generally regarded as the second most powerful man in Yemen, General Ahmar announced his support for what he called "the peaceful revolution of Yemen Youth" a few days after the massacre on March 18, when linked to Government snipers killed 52 protesters.

It was a turning point for the revolt. Immediately after the announcement of General Ahmar, soldiers of the first Armored Division were deployed around the perimeter of large anti-Government protests from Sana to protect the demonstrators. The demonstrators would be kissing foreheads soldiers as they entered the area, and many demonstrators suddenly has the feeling that the movement to overthrow the Government of Saleh could really succeed.

Numerous other military commanders, ambassadors, Ministers and other authorities in wake of Ahmar General followed the same week, expressing its support for the demonstrators and saying that the days of Government Saleh were approaching the end. He was also the starting point for negotiations between the opposition, the party in power and Western Governments, particularly the United States, to exit the Mr. Saleh.

Its chorus that Mr. Saleh and his family have not been serious partners in the campaign against terrorism, Washington is often heard these days leaders in Yemen's opposition movement. Although not a member, General Ahmar is very near Al Islah, Yemen's Islamic party and the most powerful force in the country's official opposition.

There are those in opposition and the ruling party who are skeptical of the intentions of General Ahmar. Although an affable man, he was an integral part of the Government, Saleh and was responsible for some of its corrosive policy. He played a central role in commanding the mujahedin who have returned from the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan to fight in the Yemeni army, especially in Yemen's 1994 civil war.

For the past six years, he commanded the war in Yemen against the Houthi rebels in the North of the country, during which human rights organisations have said that his army committed a series of war crimes against civilians. Along with the major allegations of corruption, say his critics, he is far from the ideal national hero.

Radhia al-Mutawakil, a Yemeni human rights activist, said she decided to take a minor role in the protest movement because of that.

Ms. Mutawakil "we cannot prevent anyone from joining the revolution," he said. "The revolution is for anyone. But to accept it and deal with him as a hero, which was a big problem. He is a very important part of the scheme. Ali Abdullah Saleh and Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar are the same thing ".

But Ahmar has generally been trying hard to put a gloss on his past dubious.

"He was weakened by war Saada and realized that joining the demonstrators he can clear some of the bad image," said a senior government official, independent, who personally know the general.

This article was revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: June 23, 2011

An earlier version of this article incorrectly described military post of Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar. He is a major general, not a general.

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World oil reserves tapped in an effort to cut the cost at the pump

The action is aimed at reducing energy prices to businesses and consumers, and in early trading, futures contracts for West Texas intermediate crude fell 5 dollars a barrel to around $ 90.

The total amount of oil to be released, about half would come from reservations in the United States, with the remainder being provided by other Nations among 28 members of the international agency. Negotiations for the coordinated response were going on in secret for weeks, according to a person involved in the negotiations. Unified similar action was taken in 1991 at the outbreak of the first Persian Gulf war.

"We are taking this action in response to the continuous loss of oil due to interruptions of supply in Libya and other countries and its impact on the recovery of the global economy," said the Secretary of energy Steven Chu in a statement. "As we move forward, we will continue to monitor the situation and be ready to take additional measures if necessary."

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 165 points at the opening of trading, shortly after the announcement of Paris, but some traders said the large fall was partly a reaction to a sharp increase in weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.

Even if the talks went on behind the scenes, the prices have come down a little in American gasoline pumps. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $ $3,61, daily report of AAA fuel meter said Thursday, compared with $ $3,83 a month ago. A year ago, the price was $ $2,74 per gallon.

Of course, the more prices could come down, if at all, with the release of oil reserves, which is not a large amount of data that oil consumption worldwide is approximately 89 million barrels per day.

The oil to be released is light sweet crude, similar to the type of Libya produces. The war in Libya since mid-March has been largely responsible for maintaining approximately 140 million barrels of oil on international markets, according to Government estimates.

Mark Routt, senior consultant for KBC Energy Economics, said he was "a little surprised" by the announcement, saying that the market had already responded to the lack of Libyan oil.

"That made the adjustments and trade flows and patterns to replace that of Libya," he said. "The other issue is all the nuances of that quality of crude oil that they are releasing. It is clear that they are releasing will be a suitable quality ".

He added: "the market had already been moving lower in terms of price. All of these questions come to the point of ' why now? ' ”

The barrel of 727 million petroleum strategic reserve was established before the oil embargo of 1973-1974 Arab to provide Presidents with emergency response to similar disruptions in commercial supply that threatens the economy and national security. According to the Department of energy, is the world's largest stockpile of emergency oil State.

With the release of 1991, in September 2005 President George w. Bush ordered a withdrawal after Hurricane Katrina disrupted oil supplies from the Gulf Coast region. The release of 1991 was approximately 17 million barrels; the launch of hurricanes of 2005 was 21 million barrels.

A person with knowledge of the decision said that seemed to be driven by several factors: the political calendar of the United States; the need to drive down prices for advanced economies; the anticipated increase in demand as the summer vacation season Gets under way; and frustration with the defeat by OPEC to increase production.

"You don't get elected with gas at $ 4 per gallon," he said. "If you were looking at just the basics, I.E.A. would have moved after the crude oil from Libya out of the market." He added: "it seems that it's about price management, but you'll never hear that I.E.A."

Christine Hauser contributed reporting from New York; Matthew Saltmarsh contributed from Paris.

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Border town of Syrian troops storm

Since violence erupted in the northwestern province of Idlib this month, thousands found shelter in shabby tent cities scattered throughout the rugged frontier. In recent weeks, many refugees came to think of the densely forested valley around Khirbet al-Jouz as a safe zone beyond the reach of the Syrian State as security forces remained mysteriously absent.

Those hopes were dashed in the early hours of Thursday, when many refugees said they were awakened by the sound of shots and the noise of distant army vehicles entering the city centre, located in the extreme of a mountain campsite.

"They surrounded us; They took the city and are in the mountains, "said Jamil Saeb, a leading activist and refugees who fled to Khirbet al-Jouz since the town of Jisr al-Shoughour. He fled to Turkey, after hearing rumors that a disguised killing Squad entered the camp and was searching for it through the olive groves and apple orchards.

"Almost all the refugees are going to Turkey," he said, adding that he planned to Syria Back to as soon as possible to continue his work ativisto.

Turkish Red Crescent officials, including President Tekin Kucukali, came to Guvecci on Thursday. "There has been movement today on the Syrian side, and we respond immediately," he told reporters. More than 10,000 Syrian refugees now living in a sequence of fields in Turkey administered by the organization. Mr. Kucukali said that by midday Thursday, more than 600 more refugees had entered Turkey.

Refugees who enter through the official crossing in Guvecci were transported to a camp of the Red Crescent in a convoy of 23 bus seen accelerating an asphalt road that divides the two countries. Mr. Kucukali estimated that were expecting more than 17,000 refugees at the borders.

Syrian forces took up a position in the village of Zeyniya on Wednesday night before advancing in Khirbet al-Jouz, in the early hours of Thursday, according to the leaders of the refugees. They entered with soldiers, tanks and armored vehicles, said a resident of al-Jouz of Khirbet called Fayez, who took the video images of the army's entry into the city as he fled. Its video shows a tank idling on the street in front of a building and men dressed in black, going door-to-door. Fayez, like many others who spoke with reporters, asked that only his first name be used because he feared for the safety of yourself and your family.

He said the army, composed of recruits and seen as more prone to defection of other security agencies, entered the city first followed by intelligence agencies forces and members of a paramilitary force, called the disguised shabiha, "shot guns at random."

Mohamed, 27, said he woke up in his forest campsite at 6 a.m. for the "echo of bullets" and ran with his video camera to an observation tower overlooking the Valley. Last week, young men hoisted a Turkish flag Tower and used to keep a lookout for the army. But on Thursday, Syrian snipers took up positions in the Tower, Mohamed said and raised the flag of Syria once more.

Mohamed said that activists in the field decided to leave when they saw the sniper nest on a hill, and also when rumor spread of a death squad in camp. A Khirbet al-Jouz residents, Mohamed Abdelwahab, 32, said they have seen undercover intelligence officers move down the slope, using the forest as cover.

Mr. Kucukali said that a similar pattern of troop movements and refugee flows was playing elsewhere along the border also Syria-Turkey. He would not be more specific, calling it "a security issue."

Ziyad Taher, 26, a refugee from Latakia who fled to Turkey on Thursday, said he saw a "elsewhere on the border where the troops are much closer to" as he fled through the forest North of Khirbet al-Jouz with your friends.

To the South, the mountain village of Ain al-Baida, whose population has tripled in recent weeks as refugees flooded from the nearby city of Badama, also was surrounded by soldiers and tanks, said Jumaa Ahmed, 24, a resident reached by telephone.

He said that people were afraid that they would not be in Turkey because the city has no official border and is separated from its neighbour by a ragged peak and a razor wire length.

"People are very frightened children are very scared," he said. "A lot of people want to go to Turkey but they don't unless the army approaches".

But Mr. Jumaa, a revolutionary self-professed in Ain al-Baida who said he had taught their young nieces and nephews of antigovernment chants while never had there been any protests there, vowed to stay no matter what.

"I will stay here until they kill me or take me away," he said. "There is no life without my house or my village. This is my place. I won't let my house to be taken by the House of Assad. "

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Some Greeks fear the Government is selling the nation

And then comes the deeper mandate round of austerity measures, which will reduce the salaries of policemen, firefighters and other workers of the State who protest in Athens and increase the taxes of citizens already inflamed by a recession-plagued economy and rising unemployment.

After winning a vote of confidence in his new Cabinet on Tuesday, Prime Minister George Papandreou has now a task even harder: to effect a radical cure of fiscal austerity and forced auctions for an economy already has sickened in a deep recession.

The the European Union, the the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, known as the "troika", say it is the only way out of a highly indebted Greece, while some economists say that the program resembles medieval bleed — a dose of pain highly unlikely to revive the patient.

First task of Mr. Papandreou is to persuade its ruler Socialist Party to pass a law that would save or raise about $ 40 billion by 2015, equivalent to 12 percent of Greece's gross domestic product, through pay cuts and tax increases, at a time when the economy is shrinking.

To put this into perspective, spending cuts and tax increases of a similar scale in the United States would be equivalent to US $ 1.75 rake trillion, considerably more extensive than even more comprehensive proposals for reducing the federal budget deficit. And Greece promised to generate more than $ 72 billion by selling assets of the primordial State, which many Greeks consider a fire sale of the national patrimony.

While the austerity commitment allows access Greece a fresh infusion of international aid, a growing chorus of economists say the new Government programme will at best delay pattern and a restructuring of its debt, which is already more than 150% of the country's gross domestic product. More steep budget cuts and tax increases, they say, are the enemy of economic growth, which desperately needs Greece to make its debt more lightweight.

"You can't keep on milking of the cow no power," said Konstantinos Mihalos, the President of the Hellenic Chamber of Commerce in Athens.

In fact many economists fear that Greece has already entered a "debt trap", where the interest in your lot of Payables requires ever more loans. "The Greeks told to accept more than has already been able to treat the disease, medicine," said Simon Tilford, Chief Economist of the Center for European Reform in London.

The Greeks have already reduced their deficit to five percentage points of gross domestic product, "unprecedented cuts in a modern economy," said Mr. Tilford. "But the cuts had a strong negative impact on the economy than the troika imagined, fiscal austerity and pushed the economy deep in recession. Debt can only be paid out of income, and that means growth. "

Greece does not have access to several tools to combat recession, how to depreciate its currency or cut interest rates at least as long as he remains a member of the eurozone. Its monetary policy is controlled by the European Central Bank.

Some independent economists agree that Greece has no choice but to attempt a new round of cuts. Edwin m. Truman, Peterson Institute for international economics in Washington said Greece had to go through more pain, because he had run a deficit even before making payments on its debt, which means that he needed loans to pay off their loans.

Only after Greece rearranges your budget, tax collection and job market and is running a surplus — not including interest payments on the debt — can economists begin to calculate how much debt the payment in Greece is really capable of supporting, and then find out how large a debt restructuring it needs.

"While they are running a primary deficit, they need to keep tightening their belts," said Mr. Truman. "Rescheduling now not relieve Greece from the burden of fixing the economy to create a surplus."

Rachel Donadio reported from Athens and Steven Erlanger of Paris.

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A divine wind blows against the President of Iran

Conservative clerics, convinced that the ambitious President remains determined to supplant messianic, rebuked Mr. Ahmadinejad to elevate its own station.

"The relationship with the leader of the revolution should be the relationship between the Guide and guided," growled file Zolnour, representative of the Supreme Leader to the revolutionary guards, in a speech at the religious centre of Qum, Iran. "What does it mean to say that my relationship with the leader is as the relation of a son of his father. This is nonsense. This is deviant speech "!

Since April, an unusually public battle between two men climbing a long time seen as the ideological soul-mates — Mr. Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali khamenei.

Web sites in support of the President was disconnected and intruders drowned out some of his speech to mark the anniversary of the death of the founder of the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. A lot of blame for the Division directs Esfandyar Rahim Mashaei, head of Mr. Ahmadinejad and a former Director of the Foundation for tourism, itself often portrayed in the Iranian press as a source of corruption and Cultural heritage.

Former allies conservatives firmly between the clergy, in Parliament and in the armed forces have abandoned the President in droves, expressing his allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei while labeling the presidential circle "deviant". current

Fundamentally, the fight is according to a standard presidential politics that has troubled the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. The system allows for two Presidents, a divine other democratic. The divine leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, keeps most of the levers of power, control the armed forces, the judiciary and the State broadcasting services.

The leader of the divine is also permanent, while elected Presidents serve a maximum of eight years. Ancestors of Mr. Ahmadinejad — Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, who has also clashed with the Supreme Leader on prerogatives — gradually faded from view.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is determined to avoid his fate and that experts say will set off the current confrontation.

"The game is now Ahmadinejad trying to maneuver politically to gain more power, while Khamenei tries to contain it," said Mustafa el-Labbad, Center Director Al Sharq Regional and strategic studies in Cairo. "It is a fight motivated by politics and economics, being presented by some as an ideological struggle and spiritual".

It all began in April, when Mr. Ahmadinejad attempted to fire Heydar Moslehi, Minister of intelligence, and the supreme leader ordered him reinstated. Mr. Ahmadinejad pouted at home for 11 days, returning only after the Supreme Leader signaled that the President, too, could be replaced.

Mr. Ahmadinejad was elected twice using the machine politics of Ayatollah Khamenei. But he wanted to build its own system of patronage and source of funds, separated from the network intelligence loyal to Supreme Leader, to elect candidates in parliamentary elections in 2012 and most importantly, in the presidential race of 2013, according to experts of Iran.

Mr. Mashaei is often named as the likely candidate, although he flees. But he and Mr. Ahmadinejad are suspected of helping the private banks and travel contracts with the Government of the revolutionary guards, who are loyal to Supreme Leader, to finance their own political goals, said Mehdi Khalaji Washington Institute for Near East policy.

By openly contradicting the Supreme Leader in April, Mr. Ahmadinejad provoked many Iranians to turn against him. Since then he has been engaged in a running skirmish about each appointment Cabinet, including the oil Minister, the Minister of sport, the Foreign Minister and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. Mohammed Sharif Malekzadeh, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, lasted only three days, resigning Tuesday amid a tumult.

Artin Afkhami contributed reporting from Washington and Lara Gibaly El Cairo.

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